Leading forecasters from Colorado State University have revised their predictions for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, now anticipating a “borderline hyperactive” season with the formation of up to nine hurricanes.
The upgrade is attributed to exceptionally warm ocean water in the Atlantic, a favorable condition for storm development. This new outlook counters the suppressing effects of El Niño, making the forecast more concerning. As the Atlantic basin has experienced relative calm since late June, the revised predictions serve as a reminder of the potential for increased hurricane activity in the coming months.
Anticipated Hurricane Activity in 2023:
The Colorado State University (CSU) team now projects 18 named storms for the 2023 Atlantic season, with nine expected to develop into hurricanes.
Among these hurricanes, four are predicted to become major hurricanes, characterized by Saffir-Simpson category 3-5 rankings and sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. These revised figures reflect an increase from the previous forecast of 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes issued on June 1.
The 2023 season has already witnessed the formation of four storms, including a subtropical storm in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret, and Cindy in June.
Factors Driving Hyperactive Hurricane Season:
Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic, the region commonly associated with hurricane formation, are significantly higher than in previous hyperactive seasons.
Warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic typically provide the energy necessary for more frequent hurricane development. The combination of record warm Atlantic waters and a likely moderate to strong El Niño distinguishes the current conditions from previous years.
Forecasters have struggled to identify precise analogs for this season due to the unique combination of factors. However, the similarities with the 2005 hurricane season, which witnessed the devastating Hurricane Katrina, raise concerns about the potential for major hurricane landfalls.
Coastal Impact and Preparedness:
The updated forecast indicates an increased probability of major hurricane landfalls along various coastal areas. For the entire continental U.S. coastline, the probability stands at 50%, compared to the full-season average of 43% spanning 1880-2020.
The U.S. East Coast, including Florida south and east of Cedar Key, faces a 25% probability, exceeding the average of 21%. The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville holds a 32% probability, surpassing the average of 27%.
The forecast serves as a reminder that regardless of the predicted activity level, it only takes one hurricane to make landfall and cause significant impacts. Coastal residents are urged to remain prepared throughout the entire hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak occurring from August to October and reaching its climax around September 10.
| Aspect | 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast |
|---|---|
| Named Storms | 18 |
| Hurricanes | 9 |
| Major Hurricanes (Category 3-5) | 4 |
| Typical Average (1991-2020) | 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes |
| Probability of Major Hurricane Landfalls | |
| Entire Continental U.S. Coastline | 50% |
| U.S. East Coast (including Florida) | 25% |
| Gulf Coast (Florida Panhandle to Brownsville) | 32% |
The upgraded forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a potentially hyperactive period, underscores the importance of preparedness and vigilance among coastal communities. Unusually warm Atlantic waters, combined with the absence of El Niño conditions, create favorable conditions for hurricane development.
Although precise analogs for this season are scarce, the similarities to the historically impactful 2005 season raise concerns about the potential for major hurricane landfalls. As the season progresses, it is crucial for individuals and communities to remain informed and take necessary precautions to ensure their safety in the face of potential storms.
